NBA Odds Trends: How Bettors Can Take Advantage of Offensive Boom
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’re no doubt aware that the NBA is in the middle of an offensive revolution.
For almost a decade now, offensive efficiency in the NBA has been growing at an incredible rate, culminating last season with a 114.8 league-average offensive rating. Per Basketball Reference, that's nearly three points more than the previous high watermark, set just the season before. Understanding why this is happening and what might be next is critical to being an informed NBA odds bettor.
| Season | Average NBA offensive rating |
|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 114.8 |
| 2021-22 | 112.0 |
| 2020-21 | 112.3 |
| 2019-20 | 110.6 |
| 2018-19 | 110.4 |
| 2017-18 | 108.6 |
| 2016-17 | 108.8 |
| 2015-16 | 106.4 |
| 2014-15 | 105.6 |
| 2013-14 | 106.6 |
Data courtesy of Basketball Reference.
While old heads might simply chalk this up to lazy defense, nothing could be further from the truth. Defenders today work harder than ever before, and NBA offenses continue to rise year over year anyway. Why?
The simple answer is 3-point shooting, but that fails to tell the whole story. To see why, one only needs to look at how last season’s average 3-point attempts dropped to their lowest per-game level in three seasons, while offense continued to soar to an all-time high. This might not seem intuitive, but understanding why can lead to smarter NBA wagers.
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Why NBA offenses keep getting better
While the offensive explosion we’re seeing in the NBA began with the simple formula of 3>2, what’s happening now is more nuanced. With teams taking more threes, defenses have to cover more space.
With more space, there are more shots available at other high-value parts of the court, namely: the rim. Free throws remain the most efficient way to score in the NBA on a per-shot basis, with layups and dunks not far behind.
Now that teams have largely adopted the 3-point shot as a steady part of their offensive arsenal, they’re still working to cut lesser shots (such as the dreaded long two) out of it. While a couple of years ago those shots were all becoming threes, more and more teams are using the threat of the three and the spacing it provides to attack inside.
The result is a more balanced and more productive offense leaguewide. While 3-point attempts were at a three-year low last season, effective field goal percentage rose. Last year’s league average 54.5 eFG% was the highest of all time.
Has the NBA hit its offensive ceiling? All trends suggest the answer is definitively no. The real question is what new trends might continue to raise offenses leaguewide this season. For a possible answer, we turn to one of the surprise teams of last season: the New York Knicks.
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The next frontier in NBA offense
If there’s been one hot topic to do with NBA offense this preseason, it’s been offensive rebounding.
There’s no better representation of the possibilities of pressing such an advantage than last year’s Knicks. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks had the No. 2 overall offense in the NBA last season. Their 118.7 offensive rating was two points higher than the 2016-17 67-win Kevin Durant-led Golden State Warriors.
That’s absurd in and of itself, but the kicker is that they did this while ranking 20th in eFG%. That was possible because they limited their turnovers, got to the line, but above all, dominated the offensive glass, grabbing 30.8% of possible offensive boards.
Memorably, the Knicks crushed the home-favorite Cleveland Cavaliers because of their ability to pound the glass. But the Knicks weren’t the only team thinking this way. While it’s lost to history now, the Atlanta Hawks beat the Miami Heat in their play-in game showdown in no small part due to their aggressive offensive rebounding strategy. Their wings crashed the boards and generated so many extra shots that the Heat’s offense couldn’t keep up with the math problem.
Those two postseason images lingered in the eyes of NBA decision-makers and thought leaders this summer, and as such, I believe a surge in offensive rebounding is on the horizon.
There’s a good chance we’ll see that have a notable impact on offense this season, even if not every team is as well suited to exploit it as the Knicks or Hawks were.
The reason goes back to why the offensive glass was abandoned in the first place. Offensive rebound rates have been at historic lows the past few seasons, but in the 80's and 90's, it was not uncommon to see a league average ORB% above 30%. Gregg Popovich of the San Antonio Spurs is credited with being the first to decide that the marginal gains of offensive rebounding were not worth what it cost a team to give up in transition defense.
While there is a balance to be found between defending in transition and crashing the glass, it can be a hard one to strike. With teams potentially experimenting with crashing the glass more this season, there are likely to be even more efficient transition opportunities for opposing teams as they work through the growing pains.
How bettors can benefit from NBA offense improvement
So, given these trends, what factors should bettors consider when considering betting on a game or team total? Well, one of the top things is what Cleaning the Glass calls location-effective field goal percentage. Location eFG% is a measurement of how well a team would be expected to score based on where on the court they take their shots game to game, assuming average efficiency from every shot.
Some NBA teams are consistently better at generating quality shots. Over time those teams are going to score more points and be better bets to go Over their totals even if they’ve hit a cold shooting stretch. There are always exceptions, like the midrange assassins over at the Phoenix Suns, but it’s a useful indicator.
On top of this, look for teams that have significant advantages in offensive rebounding, or other ways to win the possession Game. The NBA is nothing if not a copycat league. While the 3-point revolution may be slowing down in absolute terms, there will be iteration that sees offense continue to climb this season. Be on the lookout for markets and matchups that let you take advantage of it.
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